Model Predicts Denver Broncos Will Defeat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8

Survivor pool players face a difficult choice this Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver. While the Chiefs are listed as 1.5-point and -125 money-line favorites, a statistical model suggests the safer bet is the home team. The model projects the Denver Broncos to win the contest 56% of the time, a figure that makes the Chiefs a risky selection for those trying to keep their pool alive.

The conflict arises from the Chiefs' recent struggles. Kansas City entered the matchup following a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, which was their worst performance of the season. That defeat occurred just days after they beat Denver 31-10 in the season opener on Sept. 14. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, now sees the Broncos as the more likely victors despite the earlier result.

The Broncos are on a three-game winning streak and hold the title of defending AFC West champions. Quarterback Bo Nix has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions across six starts. The model views this recent momentum as a stronger indicator of future performance than the Chiefs' status as the league's powerhouse. This assessment places the Broncos ahead in the win probability projection for the game scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High.

The model's guidance is part of a wider analysis of the Week 8 schedule, which features only 14 games due to four teams sitting out. The slate is dominated by home favorites, but the model identifies specific value in fading certain high-profile teams. In addition to the Chiefs, the model points to another team that it backs to win outright in more than 70% of its simulations. That team is described as a surprising choice that many pool players have not yet selected.

Context for the model's reliability comes from its track record since 2024. It has posted a record of 58 wins and 51 losses on its top-rated picks. Players who staked $100 on these selections have seen a return of more than $5,000. This performance data underpins the recommendation to look beyond conventional betting lines when making survivor pool selections this weekend.

The Chiefs' offense has shown signs of vulnerability recently. Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,474 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions in six starts. Running back Kenneth Walker III, who had carried 120 times for 701 yards and six touchdowns earlier in the season, was limited to 36 yards on 14 carries in the loss to Seattle. These individual struggles contribute to the model's lower confidence level in Kansas City's ability to cover the spread or win outright.

The rest of the Week 8 slate offers other opportunities for pool participants. The Cincinnati Bengals are the largest spread of the day at 10.5-point favorites against the visiting Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been competitive recently, losing three games by a single score and winning one by a single score in their last five weeks. Other notable mismatches include the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Dallas Cowboys, who are 6.5-point favorites, and the New York Jets facing the Miami Dolphins, where the Dolphins are favored by 2 points.

The model advises that this is the optimal time to secure a victory in the Week 8 survivor pool by selecting the team it identifies as a must-back. The analysis suggests that avoiding the Chiefs aligns with the data, as the Broncos' three-game winning streak provides a concrete foundation for a prediction that contradicts the betting market. Pool players are encouraged to review these specific projections before finalizing their picks for Sunday's games.