UMass and Ball State face off in low-scoring MAC clash

A computer model that simulated the matchup 10,000 times projects 52 combined points, suggesting the game will exceed the 49.5 total line set by sportsbooks. The projection indicates that both offenses will find ways to score against defenses that have struggled to contain opponents this season.

Massachusetts enters Wednesday's game following a 35-16 loss to Connecticut on Oct. 23. The Minutemen have lost four consecutive games, a streak they hope to end at home. Ball State defeated Sacramento State 34-17 on Oct. 24, improving its record to 3-5 on the season.

The Cardinals hold a 2-2 record in Mid-American Conference play and are ranked seventh in the league. They have gone 1-4 in their road games this year. The Minutemen are 4-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference, tying for 10th place. They have won both of their home games in 2026.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass. The teams are even in the all-time series, each holding two wins. Massachusetts is favored by 3.5 points in the latest betting odds.

Ball State allows a league-worst 35.3 points per game, while Massachusetts ranks fourth in the MAC in scoring offense with 26.5 points per game. The Cardinals have gone over the total in eight of their last 10 games. The model identifies the Over as the value side in 55% of its simulations.

Quarterback Keldric Luster of Ball State has passed for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns this season. The model projects he will throw for more than 200 yards and one score on Wednesday. UMass quarterback William Watson III has accumulated 1,025 passing yards and eight touchdowns. His projected output is over 225 yards and two touchdowns.

The SportsLine model, which runs 10,000 simulations for every FBS game, stands at 80-77 on top-rated college football picks entering Week 10. It also indicates that one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of its runs for this specific contest.