College Football Playoff expansion forces teams to drop weak non-conference opponents

The College Football Playoff confirmed on Monday that the field will expand to 24 teams beginning in the 2027 season. This change eliminates conference championship games and imposes a strict new scheduling rule. Teams must now play ten opponents from Power Four conferences or Notre Dame each year. Schools that fail to meet this requirement risk losing playoff consideration.

Most programs already satisfy the new standard. However, several teams have light non-conference slates that require immediate adjustment. Indiana faces a complex challenge as it prepares for the 2027 season. The Hoosiers currently have games scheduled against Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. They will likely need to drop one of these matches to secure a Power Four opponent.

Oregon is in a similar position. The Ducks must replace one of their scheduled games against Eastern Washington, Coastal Carolina, or Western Kentucky to maintain eligibility. Other programs with open dates include the University of Southern California and Texas Tech. USC has only locked in games against UNLV and Nevada. Its series with Notre Dame is on pause, leaving a guaranteed opponent missing from its schedule.

Texas Tech has yet to announce its 12th game for the 2027 season. The Red Raiders currently list Arkansas-Pine Bluff and New Mexico on their roster. Both programs may look to match up with other schools seeking Power Four opponents to resolve these gaps. Missouri, Nebraska, and TCU face similar hurdles in their planning processes.

The Tigers must replace one non-conference game against Illinois State, San Diego State, or Florida Atlantic University. Nebraska needs to swap out one match against Miami (Ohio), Northern Illinois, or Northern Iowa. TCU will have to replace one of its scheduled games against Alcorn State, North Texas, or Sam Houston. Coaches at these schools view securing a compliant schedule as a key step toward qualifying for the expanded playoff.

A temporary provision provides relief to some programs. Although the Pac-12 conference no longer exists, Oregon State and Washington State will still count as Power Four opponents for the 2027 season. This rule benefits teams like Ole Miss, which is scheduled to face Oregon State. Washington, Arizona, and Kansas will play Washington State. The entire Atlantic Coast Conference is compliant due to its scheduling alliance with Notre Dame.

Looking back at the 2026 season, only two top 25 teams failed to meet the new hypothetical requirement: Indiana and USC. Indiana’s schedule featured North Texas, Howard, and Western Kentucky, while USC played San Jose State, Fresno State, and Louisiana. Three Big 12 teams currently ranked in the top 25, including Texas Tech, Houston, and Arizona, remain in good standing due to the temporary classification of the former Pac-12 schools.